Kairon Gnothi

猫: 不多说了. can not agree more. Sony, Amazon, 包括现在的Apple, 都曾经有颠覆一个行业的机会的. 但是他们没有成为颠覆者. 他们推出那些前所未见的产品和服务时, 我们反应却是猜测, 迷茫, 和窃窃的嘲笑. 真的仅仅因为是他们太贪心么?

也许他们知道自己有打开闸门的能力, 却不相信自己能控制潮流. 害怕自己成了先行者, 害怕自己首创的好处被别人尝到.

这也是贪婪.

感谢Seth大神的文章. 我再也不抱怨翻译工作了.

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How much for digital?

from Seth’s Blog by Seth Godin (作者授权翻译. 未经作者和译者许可, 请勿转载.)

电影行业将要为(苹果和其它公司提供的)数字化的电影租赁服务而欢欣鼓舞了. 定价看起来是模仿了Blockbuster (+). 3美元租一部电影, 肯再多花大概一块钱就可租得HD格式的. 这看起来很”公平”, 因为这并没有超出我们习惯的价格区间.

但是, 等一下.

Blockbuster要花15到20美元来买一张DVD(批量购买的话也许价格会大幅降低, 但是我不清楚确切的价格). Blockbuster还要为了复制DVD/仓储和营销花钱. 对于每一批DVD, 他们还承担了粉碎剩余库存的风险.

Blockbuster随即以成本的30到40倍的价格将这些DVD租出去, 也就是说每张DVD的成本为50美分. 这还没算上房屋租金, 店员, 资金成本, 广告, 诸如此类的花费. 要是按照Netflix的模式, 还得把邮寄费用算进去.

然而按照在线租赁的模式, 所有这些中间成本都立即消失了. 不花一个子儿.

那么, 既然大部分成本都没了, 为什么还要仿照现有的定价模式呢?

对于网上音乐或者PDF格式的电子书来说,情况也是一样. Kevin Kelly从他的关于电影的著作上发现了这一点. 不管你买的是光鲜的彩色版,还是最便宜的平装版, 他赚的钱都是1.5美元. 他何必要关心你买了什么版本呢?

正在日本流行的手机小说热更加证明了这个观点的合理性. 有2,000,000人下载你写的手机小说(对你来说没有增加任何成本),然后当你的作品成了热门, 你就可以靠纸版书和电影的销售收入成为百万富翁.

我也不认为免费总是正确的. 但是我确实觉得那些工作室对于RIAA的分成模式有误解. 要是我的话, 就在每个在线租赁上收50美分. 这么干会立刻沉重打击出租店和DVD复制商(对于好莱坞来说, 无所谓). 然而这种做法会立刻让人们养成新的消费习惯. 接下来, 新的消费习惯确立了, 你也获得了许可, 理所当然你就可以对新影片收得多一点, 对于那些想租实物DVD的人也可以多收钱. 3亿个电影院, 每个晚上都卖票–既然你每一个都可以用, 那你当然不必每张椅子都收10美元.

收取费用是重要的, 因为支付行为从根本上决定了(买卖)双方关系. 问题在于, 在初始阶段, 你的目标是获得最大的收益呢, 还是建立一个规模化的平台? 事实上, 现在的市场已经太小了, 定价策略很难起作用. 至关重要的是培养一个习惯于向你付钱的群体, 一个乐于听你讲话的群体, 一个你能以此建立一个生意的群体.

在50美分一租的价位上, 所有为了获得盗版而花费的心机都会消失不见, 取而代之的是方便快捷, 易于使用以及坦荡的君子之心. 更重要的是, 一个全新的服务浮出水面, 消费习惯得以养成, 工作室最终与那些乐于听他们说话的消费者建立直接的联系.

要是他们没有在刚起步时就很贪心.

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The movie studios are starting to get excited about renting movies digitally (via Apple and others). The pricing seems to be modeled on Blockbuster (+). Figure $3 a rental, another buck or so for HD. That seems ‘fair’, because it’s in the same range as we’re used to.

But wait.

Blockbuster buys DVDs for $15 or $20 (probably a lot less in volume, but I have no clue what the real number is). The studios have to pay for duplication and warehousing and marketing and they take a risk with every pressing that they’ll have to shred the leftovers.

Blockbuster then rents them out 30 or 40 or more times each, meaning each rental costs Blockbuster fifty cents. Not to mention rent, surly clerks, cost of capital, advertising, etc. Or, in the case of Netflix, stamps.

In the case of online rentals, all of these intermediate costs immediately disappear. Gone.

So, why try to mimic the current model when it comes to pricing if the costs are mostly gone?

The same thing goes for online music and for PDF versions of books. Kevin Kelly figured this out with his book on films. He makes $1.50 a copy regardless of whether you buy the beautiful color edition or the cheapest edition he sells. Why should he care which version you choose?

The current phone novel craze in Japan is even more evidence for why this makes sense. 2,000,000 people download the phone novel you wrote (it costs you nothing) and then, when it becomes a hit, you make millions on the sales of the paper book and the movie…

No, I don’t think Free is always the answer, but I do think the studios are about to make a mistake of RIAA proportions. I’d charge fifty cents for an online rental. It would immediately hammer the rental stores (which is fine with Hollywood) and DVD replicators (also fine with Hollywood) but would instantly teach people a new habit. Then, once the new habit is set and you’ve earned permission, sure, charge more for new movies and for blockbusters. 300 million movie theatres, all selling tickets every single night–you don’t need to charge $10 a seat when you have access to everyone.

It’s important to charge something, because the act of paying fundamentally changes the dynamics of the relationship. The question is this: at the start, is your goal to maximize profit or to build a platform that scales? The fact is that the market is too small right now for the price to matter. What matters is whether you can build an audience that is in the habit of paying you, an audience that wants to hear from you, an audience that you can build a business on.

At fifty cents a rental, all desire for piracy goes out the window, replaced by convenience, ease of use and a clear conscience. More important, entire new services show up, habits are built and the studios end up with a direct relationship with consumers who want to hear from them. If they don’t get greedy at the start.